Inflation Reemerges as Key Economic Concern While Recession Risks Remain Elevated

PPI jumped significantly, indicating the tailwind of declining commodity prices has likely ended. This could intensify the effects of Fed rate hikes over the next year.

Long leading indicators continue worsening, while short leading indicators have rebounded somewhat. Manufacturing may be turning positive.

Coincident indicators remain mixed. Restaurant reservations fading but consumer spending improving.

No recession warning yet, but indicators warrant continued monitoring.

Housing data next week will provide an important update on a vital sector of the economy.