Recession Odds Rise Amid Inflation and Rate Hikes, But Some See Silver Linings

Mathematical model shows 73% chance of recession in October if unemployment rate rises to 4% or more in September. Model has accurately predicted past recessions.

Fed interest rate hikes intended to reduce inflation could increase likelihood of a recession, per some analysts. But jobs data may prompt Fed to pause hikes.

Inflation rose to 3.7% in August, a 3-month high. Some say a rate hike pause with high inflation would be odd.

Many economists think positive economic data means a near-term recession can be avoided. Goldman Sachs cut recession odds for 2023.

If worried about recession, pay off high-interest debt now with a personal loan at lower rate to reduce monthly payments.