Predict-It and Polymarket Face Limits on Betting on Bankman-Fried Conviction Despite Theoretical Promise of Prediction Markets

Odds on Polymarket are 59% Bankman-Fried will be convicted on all charges, but only $4,512 bet so far, showing limitations of prediction markets.

U.S. residents can't trade on Polymarket after CFTC settlement, limiting participation.

Platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt face restrictions on topics and need regulator approval for new markets.

Theoretically prediction markets forecast well as traders put money behind beliefs.

But obstacles likely limit number of true experts betting, so power is constrained.