Predict-It and Polymarket Face Limits on Betting on Bankman-Fried Conviction Despite Theoretical Promise of Prediction Markets
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Odds on Polymarket are 59% Bankman-Fried will be convicted on all charges, but only $4,512 bet so far, showing limitations of prediction markets.
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U.S. residents can't trade on Polymarket after CFTC settlement, limiting participation.
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Platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt face restrictions on topics and need regulator approval for new markets.
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Theoretically prediction markets forecast well as traders put money behind beliefs.
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But obstacles likely limit number of true experts betting, so power is constrained.
