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    Posted 9/17/2023, 7:01:00 AM

    Bank of England Faces Dilemma on Rates as Economy Slows But Inflation Stays High

    • Bank of England expected to raise interest rates to 5.5% on Thursday, possibly the last hike in current tightening cycle as economy cools.

    • If so, it would mark the 4th biggest tightening cycle in Britain in the past century. Previous cycles accompanied by recessions.

    • Data shows economy already slowing - July output dropped sharply. But inflation still high at 9.9% in July.

    • BoE needs to balance fighting inflation versus risk of recession. Wage growth highlights inflation risks.

    • Forecast-beating inflation data before Thursday's decision could sway hawks like MPC's Catherine Mann to push for larger hike.

    reuters.com
    Relevant topic timeline:
    8/3/2023
    Business
    - The Bank of England raised its benchmark interest rate to 5.25% despite a slowdown in consumer-price rises, leading to speculation about when the central bank will end its monetary tightening. - House prices in Britain fell by 3.8% in July compared to the same month last year, the sharpest decline since July 2009, but the average house price was still higher than earlier this year. - The Bank of Japan raised its cap on the yield of Japanese ten-year government bonds from 0.5% to 1%, causing the yield to soar to nine-year highs. - Turkey's annual inflation rate increased to 47.8% in July, the first rise since October, due in part to a new tax on fuel. - The euro area's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, with much of the growth attributed to changes in intellectual property shifting by multinationals based in Ireland for tax purposes. Germany's GDP growth rate was zero, and Italy's fell by 0.3%.
    8/24/2023
    Turkey surprises with bigger-than-expected interest rate hike to 25% in bid to tame inflation
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    8/27/2023
    Bank of England has ‘no choice’ but to up interest rates again if they rise in US, experts warn
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    8/29/2023
    Fed governor warns more interest rate hikes may be coming
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    8/29/2023
    Today's Mortgage Rates for Aug. 28, 2023: Rates Tick Up for Homebuyers
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    9/1/2023
    UK on recession alert after big falls in factory output and house prices
    Surging interest rates in the UK have led to a slump in factory output, the biggest annual drop in house prices since the global financial crisis, and signals of distress in different sectors of the economy, posing a dilemma for the Bank of England as it decides whether to raise interest rates further.
    9/1/2023
    What to expect from the next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
    The Bank of Canada is set to issue an interest rate update, with experts predicting a potential rate hike that could impact mortgage payments and home values.
    9/6/2023
    Bank of Canada seen holding rates steady after economy shrank in Q2
    The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain interest rates at a 22-year high of 5% despite a contraction in the economy, as inflation remains above the bank's target.
    9/6/2023
    Bank of England boss says interest rates close to peak
    Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has stated that interest rates are close to their peak, but there may still be room for further increases, as the Bank aims to slow down inflation; however, the next decision on interest rates will depend on the latest evidence.
    9/9/2023
    UK Inflation Expectations Edge Up Despite Signs of Cooling Price Pressures
    The British public's long-term inflation expectations rose in August, posing a challenge for the Bank of England, which is expected to raise interest rates later this month.
    9/8/2023
    ECB Expected to Pause Rate Hikes After September Meeting, But Further Increases Still Possible This Year
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    9/12/2023
    UK Unemployment Rises as Job Vacancies Dip, But Wages Keep Growing
    British pay growth hits a record high, potentially leading the Bank of England to raise interest rates again, despite a cooling labor market with rising unemployment and falling job vacancies.
    9/12/2023
    Pakistan Central Bank Likely to Raise Rates Again to Fight Inflation and Boost Reserves
    Pakistan's central bank is expected to raise interest rates to address inflation and bolster foreign exchange reserves, following a series of rate hikes earlier this year in response to economic and political crises.
    9/13/2023
    ECB Faces Close Call on Further Rate Hikes as Recession Risk Looms
    The European Central Bank may raise interest rates for a 10th consecutive meeting on Thursday, but the decision is uncertain.
    9/13/2023
    ECB Weighs Another Rate Hike Despite Slowing Economy
    The European Central Bank is facing a dilemma on whether to raise its key interest rate to combat inflation or hold off due to economic deterioration, with investors split on the likelihood of a rate hike.
    9/14/2023
    Central Bank Raises Rates to Fight Inflation, Though Economy Remains Weak
    The European Central Bank has raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to help bring down inflation, although the economy is expected to remain weak for a while before slowly recovering in the coming years.
    9/14/2023
    ECB Raises Rates Again But Hints hikes May Pause as Economy Slows
    The European Central Bank has raised its main interest rate for the 10th consecutive time to tackle inflation, but indicated that further hikes may be paused for now, causing the euro to fall and European stocks to rally.
    9/14/2023
    UK Interest Rates Set to Hit 15-Year High as BoE Battles Inflation
    The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points to its highest level in more than 15 years, as inflation in Britain remains above target and economists see room for further tightening.
    9/15/2023
    Russian Central Bank Hikes Key Rate to 13% to Fight Inflation and Support Rouble
    The Russian central bank has raised its key interest rate to 13% in response to inflationary pressures and a weak rouble, and warns that rates will remain high for a considerable period of time, with further rate increases possible in the future.
    9/15/2023
    Mortgage Rates Hit New Highs Ahead of Fed Meeting While Home Prices Rise and Affordability Declines
    Mortgage rates continue to rise, reaching an average of 7.18% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, as experts remain divided on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates further.
    9/18/2023
    Central banks near peak rates but more hikes possible if high inflation persists
    Following the European Central Bank's record high interest rate hike to 4%, there is speculation about how long rates will remain at this level, with analysts predicting a 12-month pause before any cuts are made, while also considering the impact of rising oil prices on inflation expectations in Europe and the US. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady in September, but there are divided opinions on whether another hike will be delivered this year, with markets anticipating rate cuts in 2024. Similarly, the Bank of England is anticipated to make one final hike in September as it assesses inflation and economic indicators.
    9/18/2023
    Fed likely to pause rate hikes, but consumers see little relief from high loan rates
    The Federal Reserve is expected to hold off on raising interest rates, but consumers are still feeling the impact of previous hikes, with credit card rates topping 20%, mortgage rates above 7%, and auto loan rates exceeding 7%.
    9/20/2023
    UK Inflation Cools in August, Boosting Hopes of BoE Rate Hike Pause
    UK inflation unexpectedly dips to 6.7% in August, sparking speculation of a pause in interest rate hikes from the Bank of England.
    9/20/2023
    UK Inflation Slows for Third Month, Easing Pressure on Bank of England to Hike Rates
    Inflation in Britain slowed for a third consecutive month in August, defying expectations of a rise due to higher fuel prices, with consumer prices rising 6.7 percent compared to the previous year, driven by slower increases in food prices and a decline in hotel room costs. Core inflation also fell more than anticipated, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures, though price growth remains uncomfortably high. The Bank of England is set to announce its decision on interest rates, with growing speculation that rates may be held steady due to signs of slowing inflation and a weak economy.
    9/20/2023
    UK inflation drops unexpectedly to 6.7% in August, easing pressure on BoE to hike rates
    The prospect of the Bank of England pausing its interest rate hikes increased as the UK's high inflation rate unexpectedly slowed to an 18-month low, causing the pound to fall and investors to see a nearly 50-50 chance of rates staying on hold at the BoE's September meeting.
    9/21/2023
    Sweden Raises Interest Rates for 8th Time as Inflation Remains High
    Sweden's central bank has raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time to combat high inflation, as the country's economy shows signs of improvement, while Norway's central bank also opted to raise rates and signaled the likelihood of another hike in December.
    9/21/2023
    Turkey's Central Bank Hikes Key Rate to 30% to Fight Soaring Inflation Despite President's Opposition
    Turkey's central bank raises interest rates to 30% as it seeks to combat high inflation and stabilize the weakening lira.
    9/21/2023
    Bank of England Pauses Rate Hikes For First Time in Nearly Two Years As Inflation Slows
    The Bank of England has opted not to raise interest rates for the first time in nearly two years, as inflation in Britain unexpectedly slowed and officials warned that the battle against persistent inflation is not yet over.
    9/21/2023
    Central Banks Commit to High Rates to Curb Inflation Despite Recession Risks
    Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England, have pledged to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation and achieve global economic stability, despite concerns about the strength of the Chinese economy and geopolitical tensions.
    9/21/2023
    Portugal Approves 30% Discount on Mortgage Rates to Aid 1 Million Struggling Borrowers
    Portugal's government has announced that banks must reduce mortgage interest rates for borrowers struggling with rising interest rates, by discounting the benchmark six-month Euribor rate by 30%.
    9/22/2023
    Bank of England Halts Rate Rises as Housing Markets Slow, Eurozone Inflation Still High
    The Bank of England has decided to halt interest rate rises due to unexpected inflation slowdown, while housing markets in major global economies, including the US, Germany, and the UK, are showing signs of slowing down. Additionally, there have been developments in various countries' economic outlooks and key interest rates.
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